He’s Back (…this is not a DIE HARD sequel)

Let's make some mo-money!

Just in time for another season…
Roger is back with his old picks, it’ll be a little rough for the first week…but for entertainment purposes lets take PIT -6.5

We’re all glad it’s the Fall, we hope you are all glad too.

No Service…

Sorry pick fans, currently I’m in the midsts of a move. No cable or programming means little available research and information; which means I’m not going to break a rule and give you picks without research. Since the season is nearly over, I’m going to call it a wrap on NFL picks. Keep posted as I’ll post “My $200″ portfolio gains from this season soon. Also, continue visiting cause I’ll be showing you tips on how to invest over the NBA season, and I’ll also be making some nightly picks. Until my next post…

Good betting and good luck!

-Roger

NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving leftovers and rain…

Week 13 kicked off on Thursday. Not only did it bring us a day of festivities and eating, but also three games that were all pretty terrible to watch and all pretty easy to predict. This Sunday, we’re left with some leftovers from the Thanksgiving meal and the remnants of week 13. All games remaining are fairly difficult to predict, and games that appear as potential investments carry certain weather concerns; so I will not be placing bets this weekend. If you’re looking for a hint of advice I like the following: IND, WAS, NE, and NYJ…do what you want with that information but be forewarned all four games forecast for rain.

Best of luck!

Roger.

NFL Week 12: Initial Picks

I’m back this week, and initial picks are posted. Final picks will be updated by 12:15 PM. First sentiments on this week, it’s tricky but an astute investor who pays attention to the injury report and the game day active listings should be able to find some value. I am cautious about TB at DET, worried that TB maybe the team that falls to DET (however unlikely). Meanwhile the amount of parody throughout the league, along with “must win/playoff dire” scenarios makes me want to urge discretion to all potential investors this week. Either way, keep reading and check the final picks when updated, and good luck!

-Roger Moore

NFL Picks

Week 11: OUT TO LUNCH…(back next week)

Hey readers, sorry but i’m taking a personal break this weekend, along with the fact that I see no true “1 ratings” in the schedule. I might sneak in a few wagers, but nothing extreme (since betting without research is breaking a rule, and we never break the rules!). My absence still doesn’t mean I skipped the week totally, still had some time to get in a straight money line wager on NYJ this past Thursday (woot-woot!).

Some quick hunches if you’re looking for advice, I like IND, CAR and MIA (but remember all just initial pick/hunches). Those picks are in order of confidence by the way, so yes, I think IND rolls. Games to be cautious of, or basically trap bets…NO, ARZ and PHL.

Until next week, good luck!

-Roger

NFL Week 10: Initial Picks

Final picks, with final injury reports are now posted on the NFL Picks page. I’m bullish on this week as long as you remain conservative. I’m reserved in CAR, beware. For example, my riskiest wager this week will be either CHI +6, or MIN on the money line. I really like NE this week, and want to emphasize caution regarding MIA, although they should win, they’re still MIA. Best of luck!

-Roger Moore

NFL Week 9: Final Picks

Final Picks are now posted, please note that there are no “1 Ratings” this week. I urge to exercise limited betting, as I am not confident at all in this weeks games. Games that should consider top consideration: CHI, MIN, and NE +9…We’ll keep updating up till game time. Good luck this week!

-Roger Moore

NFL Picks

NFL Week 8: Final Picks

Final picks for the week and ratings are available for view on our NFL Picks page. Last minute injury updates will continue to post up till 12:30 PM. A few important notes to mention, Jason Taylor/ WAS, is expected to play along with A. Bolden, ARI, and S. Jackson is wavering and will be a game time decision. Jackson’s presence has implications on the game rating so keep posted on our final rating for that match up. Good luck this week!

-Roger Moore

NFL Week 7 Results (Last week):

• Roger Moore: 10-4
  
• Best ESPN Expert (Chris Mortensen): 10-4
• Accuscore: 10-4

**Please note that Accuscore and the ESPN experts are unable to select spreads or buy points.

NFL Week 7: Final Picks

initial picks have been posted, and are available for view on our NFL Picks page. Enjoy and good luck.

-Roger Moore

NFL Week 6 Recap

A tough week for everyone, below are a comparison of records for predicting games. Please note that unlike Accuscore and the ESPN experts, I allow for myself to select spreads and buy points and am given a slight advantage due to this detail.

• Roger Moore: 7-7
• ESPN Experts (best): 9-5
• Accuscore: 7-7

A tough week on Wall St. and just as tough a week in the NFL. Week 6 not only was full of upsets and surprises, but included a base parlay crash. It was bound to happen at some point of the season, for more analysis on the financial implications of a base parlay crash take a look at the My $200 week 6 update. There were plenty of good stories this week involving losses; below are additional topics:

• WAS…a base parlay crash
• CHI & DEN…mistakes jus’ part of the game
• NYG…once there was one, and now there’s none
• NE…”Cassel-ed” in San Diego

Despite 3 turnovers, none could be accredited to Jason Campbell; He continued his perfect passing season with no interceptions.

When you view the box score of this game, everything says Washington was dominant. Clinton Portis ran for 129 yards, Jason Campbell continued to throw with efficiency, and the Washington defense held STL’s best weapon, S. Jackson to under 100 yards rushing; but three errors (fumbles) and one taken back for a TD and we have our first un-avoided upset for Roger Moore. The lesson was manifested in the example of a win less team (St. Louis Rams) upset a team considered to be one of the best in the NFL (Washington Redskins). Unfortunately that wasn’t the only upset this week. The base parlay crash is always difficult to handle, but you should never gamble with money you aren’t able to lose, and on the season financially we are still up. However, given the current state of the NFL I may want to change wagering strategies, for more on that continue reading.

For the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos, had their games tainted with questionable referee actions. The Chicago Bears had an impressive road win taken from them in the very last moments of the game, however it was suspect clock management by the referees that allowed for a kick return, a pass, and a field goal all within 11 seconds. On a optimistic tangent for Bears fans, Kyle Orton delivered another strong performance; at what point do we need to stop considering him a possesion quarterback and recognize his capabilities? The Denver Broncos also found themselves on the short end of botched referee decisions. A questionable/ghost pass-intereference call allowed the Jaguars to ru out the clock, keeping the potent Denver offense off the field. In fact the calls were so obviously botched that Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio jokingly claimed “I have a bad case of amnesia.” when asked by reporters following the game. We need to remember that we’re wagering on sports that involves 22 active players, on a field of a 100 yards, with outdoor elements, noise, multiple referees, and one odd shaped ball; there simply are too many variables to expect anything to occur at a rate of 100%. Unfortunately, mistakes are just part of the game and need to be considered when placing wagers on expedited outcomes.

"Once you pop you just can't stop"...apparently Eli had mistaken the pringles slogan for interceptions on MNF, throwing three.

Continuing on the theme of upsets, we have the case of the New York Giants. Now I know for the first 3 weeks of the season I was reserved on labeling this team as elite, despite their undefeated record. After last weeks dominant showing versus SEA, I thought they had turned the corner and proved me wrong, and so I gave the NYG their first “1 rating” of the season. I had concerns going into the game on Monday, especially what CIN did to the NYG secondary, but I was confident in my selection as I rarely lose both my 1 selections. However, 3 hours later after kick off, and we know who was right on that game. So with the NYG losing, the state of the NFL needs to be questioned. The pyramid parlay strategy was created to take advantage of dominant NFL teams receiving poor odds. It was established in 2004 when the Eagles were 13-3, the Patriots were 14-2, the Steelers were 15-1, the Colts were 14-2, and even the Chargers were getting involved with a 13-3 record…oh those were the days, ha. However, 4 years later, one franchise quarterback injured, and we are left with a NFL where no dominant team is clear (ahem, cough, Jets? – and NO not even the Titans, despite their record). As an investor you should take note to this and start making wager decisions as a Bear Market investor. In the coming weeks I would imagine you’ll see conservatism exercised in my selections. However, it’s just as important to remain controlled and disciplined; just because you suffered losses betting, betting less is only going to make it more difficult to recover (I want to emphasize that such a mindset should only be enforced if you’re

Matt had a pedestrian 203 yards, 1 INT, and no TD.

a veteran of gaming; you should never do something that makes you uncomfortable).

Last week in San Francisco I introduced the world to what it meant to be “Cassel-ed” and apparently Matt didn’t want to let his fans down. The New England Patriots were not indicative of a team with Superbowl aspirations in San Diego this week. Cassel was an example of offensive inefficiency, even agasint a secondary as suspect as the SD Chargers. Unfortunately there’s not too much I can write to encompass all the occurences of being “Cassled” while watching this game. But I would imagine many of you caught glimpses of the game, since it was broadcast to a Sunday prime time audience. The best summary I can give, is take all the moments during the game when you found yourself mildly sighing in disappointment and that’s how it feels to get “Cassel-ed”. Look I still believe that the Patriots will be competent, but you can forget about their abilities as a dominant team. Dominant teams are the ones that are capable of traveling across the United States, playing a team of Charger’s calibur and winning; that is not the 2008 New England Patriots.